Gas Crisis: Possible Cold Snap at weekend may challenge STS

6.17.00pm GMT Mon 12th Dec 2005

Early Weather forecasts are pointing towards a cold snap at the weekend which could eat into short term storage according to the Chairman of the Independent Energy Scrutiny Panel, John Hemming MP.

"Evidence from 1947, the last time the UK faced a winter energy crisis, is that the most likely time for an energy supply crisis to bite is in last January, early February. However, the current predictions of a cold snap at the weekend should send a shiver down the spine of the Energy Minister, Malcolm Wicks."

"Clearly weather forecasts are not that perfect. However, if we do face sub zero temperatures in London at the weekend this could challenge gas supply. At this stage I would expect the supply to cope, but only by eating into short term storage. The UK has about 2 days of short term storage at peak rate. If this happens it will be the first real challenge of the supply system this winter. The linepack could be the saving grace of the government. Luckily the cold spell is predicted to be short."

"Isle of Grain's LNG imports are now running at a more reasonable level of around 10 mcm/d. This is still below the predicted 13 in WOR2005. The government have completely failed to make any progress on improving imports from Belgium. A small amount of gas (48 mcm) was put into storage at the weekend. Although prices have stabilised at a lower level demand has been cut by reduced prices. "

"The government should be looking at how to reduce gas consumption. They are skating on very thin ice at the moment."